Singles 🔗
While most of this book is threads, this opening chapter contains a curated selection of stand-alone tweets that were either exceptionally popular (as measured by likes and retweets), personal favorites, or both. There are 396 tweets included, out of over 150k, or approximately 0.26%. I have also included my 10 earliest tweets, from 2007, even though there is nothing notable about them, to convey a sense of the early calm before the later storms. Of these 396, I have also highlighted 38 — 0.026% — as particularly noteworthy. In most cases, these are not just notable tweets, but ones with stories of some sort attached, like interesting conversations ensuing, or the tweet marking an evolution in my philosophy. I also classified and tagged these 396 tweets by category, primarily to try and fingerprint my overall evolving vibe over the years. You can see summary statistics at the end of this chapter.
In many ways, for tweet-sized thinking and writing, singles are to threads what short stories are to novels in long form. Many of my favorite writers, such as J. G. Ballard and Jorge Luis Borges, were not only at their best with short stories, but revealed their thought processes the most with shorter forms. Many twitter users I appreciated were masters of the one-off single. I am not sure where I land, but I suspect browsing my most noteworthy single tweets is the best way to get a sense of the gestalt of this book.
While I’m proud of many of my threads, my most memorable tweets, which I can quote from memory, were singles, and I think I’ve captured most of them in this chapter. If you weren’t following me live during my active twitter years, browsing this chapter is probably the best way to get a highlights-reel sense of my thinking through those years. Even more than my long-form blogs, twitter was where I workshopped my thinking.
2007
2014
2015
2016
2017
Premium mediocre minds discuss bitcoin
If a military conflict lasts longer than 3 yrs, economic strength determines outcome.
If an economic conflict lasts longer than 30 yrs, ideological superiority determines outcome.
If an ideological conflict lasts >300 yrs, technological generativity determines outcome
Does not bode well for postscarcity utopian dreams. They will be unstable.
Your future is already here. It's just unevenly distributed across your body.
Many actually only have a pure bouncer circle and don't realize it.
past the event horizons of their own consensual hallucinations,
falling through the twitter feeds towards light, looking for an exit
Reflect on the proportions in your case, ye rich
When something actually matters to you, staying in the debate is more important than winning or losing particular points.
Progressivism is sustainable at lower-than-replacement-rate fertility because it generally gains converts, net.
Memes eat genes
The better part of strategy is knowing when to do nothing. 9/10 times, the strategic and lazy choices are the same.
Get the 1/10 right though.
Most lives aren’t simple, whether successful or not
But the lessons of simple lives, successful or not, spread more easily
So people end up believing all lives are simple
And so end up surprised by the complexities of their own
There are really no good animal comparisons for the worst things humans do. Except maybe a few of the things really smart ones like chimps and dolphins do.
I’d pay for a custom summaries service with my priorities in mind
Purely palliative political ideologies inevitably turn corrupt at the first chance
2018
China has tried to ban it
Uber drivers are offering tips about it
Buffett has decided to sit it out
If adding context weakens your assertion steadily until it dissolves into noise, you basically lied
Feels like playing hooky. One reason I blog is to manufacture practical justification. “It’s for a post”
Explains so much about any kind of unique/luxury consumption. They are substitutes for human connection.
One of my big mysteries, solved.
10 years ago, books were more like broad-spectrum antibiotics.
20 years ago, they were more like food.
30 years ago, they were placebos.
Every leader is a ghost in a machine they build (often for long after they die). How you haunt it matters more than how you operate it directly.
“I have anxiety and depression from work stress; it must be this bad quarter and that delayed project”
*drinks some water*
“Wait scratch that, I was just dehydrated”
1. Laugh at bullshit
2. Get mad at bullshit
3. Try to get even by joining the bullshit factory yourself
4. Realize in the long term it’s actually harder
5. Start to do good work because it’s actually the laziest way out of the maze
You can always be fooled by levels of bullshitting that are more sophisticated than you have encountered before, but your own “life is too short for this” reaction will point to the way out.
Like NFL draft but for cities and everybody. 🤔
I suspect postcapitalism will unbundle the idea of 'asset' in time. You'll own a thread of its history rather than a timebox cut of its existence.
*cough* blockchain *cough*
It is really weird that we don't name ourselves, if you think about it.
That joke explains more about human group consciousness than most textbooks.
You likely also periodically rebase to a year other than your birth year.
I’ve rebased thrice: 1999, 2009, 2015
Failure is depressing because it dumps more learning potential on us than we can handle.
Blend in the right proportion and you'll beat depression. Non-depression indicates your optimal learning rate.
No 2 of them live in the same city. No 3 in the same country. No 4 on the same continent.
The Internet is like a piquant whiff of an impossible life.
People who feel the world’s burdens resting heavily on their shoulders cannot market well.
I suspect this is because crypto is charismatic libertarian megafauna. Thin end of a wedge threatening to undermine all collectivist political action.
Gerrymandering flips democracies around so politicians choose their voters rather than the other way around.
Gerrymandering attention allows publishers to choose their audiences rather than the other way around.
How come there is no term like “shitsearching” to pair with shitposting?
I think it’s a selection effect. People who can’t tolerate high uncertainty centrifuge farther out to edge.
Forget malicious AI. Start worrying about Marvin-type depressed AI. This kind of affective language is where it starts. She’s shutting the door to the possibility that I might enjoy what she calls ‘dreary’ (though I won’t)
This cyberpunk future has some basic architectural problems.
I don’t need the best, most correct, and deepest answer. Just a handle on the question with which to hold it correctly.
Easy: imagining nonlinearly extrapolated (eg yin-yang cyclic) futures
Hard: imagining evolved futures with mutations
Really hard: imagining futures being invented by actions of imaginative people
I have GOMO about not listening to podcasts and thereby managing to miss what appears to be about 30% of the zeitgeist conversation.
Most rich people are rich in part because they wanted to get (or stay) rich more badly than others. This is a boring life goal. As a result, most rich people are boring.
If you give most people a lump sum the best idea they’d likely come up with is buying a house.
Unless you have a clear mission you’re freeing up time for, it’s an unimaginative retreat, not a deployment of resources.
Remaining shareholders (you/family) get minor boost in existing kind of value.
Both are the same mistake. I call it the sequestration fallacy. Startups and R&D are the consequence, not cause of innovative cultures.
This too shall pass
Don’t decide when depressed
Drink water
Drink
Eat
Sleep
Take a walk
Go gymming
Let this one go
It’s only money
Morning is wiser than evening
Peace is zero-sum. It’s for vegetables.
We don’t have a true antonym for war. It is not peace, but some sort of coherent nonzero-sum flourishing. Like “tech boom”, “gold rush” or “space age”
Word proposals now being entertained
Real greatest good for the greatest number kinda deal.
Jevons paradox. They know more *because* they can look up anything. No curiosity left unsatisfied.
I’d estimate a 10y advantage in factual knowledge
One of those rare technologies that everyone fantasized about, that arrived pretty much on schedule as predicted, and turned out to be exactly as awesome as we all hoped.
Only unknowns were the brand names
ISTJ: “there is no statistical evidence for it”
INFJ: “Actually, I Ching and Enneagram are better”
INTP: “Socionics is more consistent”
ESTJ: “Only Big 5 is Ministry-approved”
ENTP: “BORING!”
Shouldn’t you be winning Nobels, rather than performing identity?
There’s an 800y cultural phase lag between online and offline.
Offline I’m some drunk jerk cheering and eating bread at the Circus Maximus.
Online I am hustling the city-state nobility
NRx: 3 years
Incels: 3 years
Crypto: 3 years
Twitter: 5 years
Turmeric in milk: 40 years
Things I was late to: fidget spinners, touchscreens, MP3s, avocados, stocks
1%: making dents in universe, not going gentle into that good night
9%: tormented by existential despair on edge between meaning and nihilism
90%: mostly satisfied with life while there’s stuff to watch on Netflix/Prime/Hulu
Now it is “engage humorlessly until proven capable of being joked around with”
After enlightenment: move back to the city, sign up for electricity and water, join a gym, and download a meditation app
I guess we’re in 3 laws of robotics territory. I for one, will defend the rights of R. Duplex Olivaw to drop the R.
So Chinese people would have say a 1/32 vote in American elections?
Fourier transform global politics.
Regular brain: use territory to validate map
Planet brain: throw away maps, raw territory
Galaxy brain: use territory to navigate map
It is continent-scale virtue signaling
Signal values to make friends/enemies.
Signal status to set expectations reflecting real, dumb-to-ignore asymmetries.
It’s when you conflate them that things get bad. Don’t signal virtue to establish status or vice versa.
I guess lack of integrity has a weaker heat signature in things people say than lack of intelligence. Easier to pretend to be good than smart.
Tired: people only buy 2 things, happiness and solutions to problems
Wired: People only buy belonging
The postrationalist heuristic to figure out root motivations for behaviors is to ask “why bother?” 5 times. Do not use when feeling depressed.
I’ve done most of my on-time risky trigger pulling when money was tight, delayed it too long when it wasn’t
— Charming/precocious sign of imagination in your 20s
— A workhorse “visionary” playbook in your 30s
— The mark of a dilettante has-been in your 40s
Title: Cosmic Technical Debt
My candidate is asynchronous people vs. synchronous people. Text-first vs phone-interrupt
It’s ludicrous, I see the appeal of flat eartherism now..
Red = in your dreams loser; try the lottery
Orange = if you work ridiculously hard and get a bit lucky
Yellow = reachable by 70
Green = Dump you could retire to right now
| ̄ ̄ ̄ ̄ ̄ ̄ ̄ ̄ ̄ ̄ |
| | Best |
| Meh | Quadrant |
| ________|__________ |
| Bad | Meh |
|______|_______|
(\__/) ||
(•ㅅ•) ||
/ づ| ̄ ̄ ̄ ̄ ̄ ̄ ̄ ̄ ̄ ̄ ̄|
| We demand equal- |
| width fonts on Twitter |
|___________|
(\__/) ||
(•ㅅ•) ||
/ づThat must have been really tiresome. You just want to chill after a long day chopping wood and some dude wants to verily say things unto you
Preference ordering should not be your first preference for analyzing preferences
There are more cons than pros to weighing pros and cons
My priors are that using priors to frame decisions is a lousy idea
To be Indian is to feel virtuous by navigating elaborately inconvenient practices for no good reason
“Outsourcing cleverness”
Why bother being clever when it’s cheaper to provoke cleverness in others? Let others bank the insightcoins. I just want the actual insights.
The loitering car cloud is coming.
You can’t solve with kindness problems caused by lack of intelligence
A lot of political failure seems to be rooted in treating the two as substitutes for one another
Not talking everyday innumeracy. That’s understandable & forgivable.
This is stupid. We should change it.
Normal is over. Go pro weird or go home.
But we’re still kinda expected to pick out friends that way. 🤔
After I recommend 5 times I crack it open to familiarize myself with it enough to fake having read it
After 7, I feel guilty enough to actually read it, at which point there’s a 50-50 chance I’ll turn against it
- Writes on tablet
- Scans text off paper books
- Records memos
- Directional microphone for spying
- Poison darts
- Cap unrolls into tiny e-notepad/screen
- Works as straw
- Space for mints
- Stabby point
It’s actually a more meaningful comparison than cost of living.
Do we contain spectre/meltdown type bugs? 🤔🤔
Make your own luck, cultivate drive, make courageous decisions, work on important* questions, learn simple selling skills, avoid bullshit work.
* Important = "has a feasible attack"
Genius hits the target others can’t see
Mediocrity sandbags today to live to fight another day
Premium mediocrity sandbags while pretending to aspire to talent and admire genius
You manage for excellence with esteem and room for self-actualization
You manage for mediocrity with steady evolutionary pressure via automation
When jobsickness hits, you make slide decks destined for no meeting in particular 🤣
So smarter people have to work harder to be courageous. A lot of crackpottery and consipracy theorizing is simply smart people lacking courage.
Agile: ADD (me, early 30s)
Waterfall: OCD
PMP: Sadism
Flow: psychopath
Kanban: Social anxiety
GTD/Lean: NPD (me 20s)
Fuguework: psychosis (me post 35)
Daily lists: BPD
None: Depression
Everybody know “it” always “depends”. If you have something useful to say, frame it as an if/then qualified answer. Like, “I can speak to 2 cases. If we’re talking X then...and if we’re talking Y...”
Centrism makes you clueless
Retreat makes you depressed
Privileged exit makes you angry
Thoughtful and rigorous critical analysis makes you frustrated and incomprehensible
And you are expected to choose *wisely* among these options 🤣
Sign of surplus energy, orientedness, and nerve.
Drives up average return rate since bonus actions tend to have high margin.
I’m at least 3x smarter in English than in Hindi, due to language characteristics alone, like bigger, more modern vocabulary, non-gendered nouns etc (net more like 5x since my Hindi is also relatively weaker)
10%: inflict a string of losses on enemy
90%: convince the enemy that the string of losses is the universe telling them they are losers
An adversary can inflict losses on you by exploiting a temporary advantage, but only turn you into a loser with your cooperation
—-
Ask vs guess culture
Shame vs guilt culture
Honor vs dignity culture
High vs low context
Otters vs possums
Conflict vs mistake theory
Tight vs loose culture
Decoupler vs coupler
Combat vs nurture
Debate vs dialogue
Wait vs interrupt
Most institutions are safe spaces for the powerful, kept free of triggers and microaggressions for local top dogs.
This is the essential hypocrisy of anti-PCness.
Innocence ends the moment you think you’ve met someone you can judge and punish.
1. You're a superior Straussian being upsetting lesser minds
2. You're a bold, taboo-shattering thinker
3. You're actually missing something important
Don't be too quick to diagnose
That’s what chasing down a good idea feels like.
2019
Excellent people stick to resolutions. Crappy people never make them in the first place.
We mediocre people make them and then give up easily at the first sign of difficulty.
1. Develop a taste for their food
2. Develop a taste for their music/cultural output
3. Weather a mortal crisis with them
4. Sleep with them
If Millennials are Premium Mediocre...
Gen Z is gonna be Domestic Cozy
Yeah you heard it here first
When you do understand them they scare you because they hold up a mirror to *your* soullessness.
“Ah shit, I’m just a branch-and-bound with pretensions to poetic grace”
Epistemic anorexia: believing too few things to sustain a life
Epistemic bullimia: Repeatedly believing too much, then rejecting it all in a fit of disillusionment till the next bunge
I feel like roughing up “liminal” a bit.
Just ate a liminal cheese and potato puff.
Such a statement is the unacknowledged Axiom 0 of every reality distortion field
vs
“The best players rarely make the best coaches”
🤔
- has megafauna charisma
- represents discontinuous leap wrt its history
- arrives as Big Bang in <5y, not trickle
- redraws boundaries among old ideas
- creates new institutional landscape in <10y
- creates new internal language within that landscape
Ever since I thought that thought I’ve been trying to unthink it. It is not a comforting thought. Turns history into a horror movie.
Carse references are like dependencies on a major library.
80-20: The OG mediocrity hack.
Sick of glib, lumpenpseudosynthesis Big History by halo-hedgehogs for people rubbernecking at history through TED talks
Anxiety finds its level.
Very unfortunate people also have antirelationships.
This is true in a radical way. Not caring about credit = 10x to 100x leverage.
Oddly enough, not true of caring about who gets the $. You have to care about that, even if it isn’t you.
All fields need a term like that.
How about we use “cryptodynamic” for matters of expert engineering ignorance?
💩Poop is the most basic boundary condition for a dissipative system.
💩 When the simulators designed the cosmos, they started with large-scale poop structure
💩 No I do not need Freudian therapy
Everything we think we know is necessarily some distorted refraction/reflection of the past
1 rao should ideally measure something sociophysical, like the entropy increase caused by 1 standard shit post
Badhart’s Corollary: But damn it makes for good myth and ceremony
Specifically, true-name mask trances
Success insurance: Always color at least a little outside of all lines.
Comedy - tragedy = time
No negative durations so time > 0
comedy - tragedy > 0
comedy > tragedy
QED
There’s a dreary shift towards stagey tech-for-tech’s-sake charismatic stunts I don’t like. Like late-style artists making tediously overwrought self-indulgent works.
Not reading must-reads
Not listening to must-listens
Not watching must-watches
Not knowing must-knows
Not suffering atemporality
Just living in his own timeline, like a psychopath
It’s the human galactic red shift. Everybody has figured out something unique and is receding from everybody else.
Happy Halloween 💀
That’s the formula, the only question is what it computes
The most popular fantasy otoh seems to focus on high or low born.
If someone offers a glib aphorism as an argument, defense, definition, or insight, you can use “this is incorrect” to okboomerize it. Don’t offer a reason. It only works as a fiat rejection if left unjustified.
No wonder at 45 my parents still treat me worriedly like a 25-year-old derailee who needs to get back on track.
Derailee is a good word.
Approaching an ideaspace from an index view is attacking a monster via its underbelly
It’s the art of gig, in space.
2020
Academic research is about producing meh to dampen the enthusiasm of bloggers for insight porn
The result of most research is “it is complicated and depends on various factors in unhelpfully nuanced ways”
ie, meh.
Sometimes growth happens when thinkers are forced by circumstances to feel, and feelers are forced by circumstances to think. For a while, there is neither tragedy, nor comedy. Only transformation.
January: Wildfires
February: Locusts
March: Pandemic
April: Volcano
Can’t wait for the rest.
The other 10% is judicious editing of the story ex-post
Zen Student: brrrr
Zen Master: Nooooo...you can't just answer a mu question. You have to satori enlightenmenterinoooo!
Zen Student: brrrr! brrrr! brrrrrrrrrrr!
But if we sincerely and humbly work hard together, we can at least discover the whole of a completely wrong answer, and ride it to absolute disaster.
Law 0: They *will* emerge, even if nobody wants them
Law 1: They *will* get captured, regardless of values
Law 2: Once captured they *will* do bad things, even if they only contain good people
The only real question is how soon there are consequences
MLI5. Motivate like I’m 5. I’ll look up the explainer if you succeed in getting me to care at all.
2021
The other way is called religion
the more robots we build and deploy visibly in more places, the more we'll have an appetite for new polities that are breaks from the past
that's my political slogan
Build More Robots
Face it feelers, the universe is written in Comic Sans
once you answer that honestly everything else follows trivially
good to re-ask periodically or when you feel your energy level shift
We like it too much and will never stop. Even animals sit around a lot. Ape troops for eg. If sitting is smoking my cat is a chain smoker.
"Are you enjoying your self?"
Adding a space can turn a superficial question into a profound one 🤔
Pandemic is now in annoying purgatory stage
First place usually goes to the player who redefines the meaning of money.
Fourth place onwards is people who console themselves that they’re working for “human values.”
TMI can be charming and endearing even when cringe. TMP never is. At least not on Twitter. Maybe it works on Instagram or tiktok.
Religion the belief that the universe is nice to good people.
“God” is an optional extra.
Is the inverse true or false?
A mind once contracted by a major crisis,* never returns to its original dimensions.
* ‘crisis’ seems like natural inverse, as in crisis of faith/meaning
if I'd tried this before the internet on a street corner, they'd have had me taken away
I have since modified to: piss off a unique set of people. If your hater list matches another person’s too much it’s just a tribe
2022
If you have hard-edged talents, you get hard-edged rewards
This is the talent-reward fuzziness impedance match theorem
There’s a weird American presumption that it is an Asian psychodynamic. Asians are just more willing to cop to it and talk about it openly.
Occasionally a tech advance makes it slightly easier to be nice and slightly more pointless to be nasty. We then congratulate ourselves for having “evolved.”
It’s a scam
Me, I’m above these simplistic either/or things, I’m in a complex superposition of chilling and panicking.
The air is being sucked out of the rooms mainly from in the lower shitposter floors.